The U.S. freight market is getting into the fourth quarter with truck capability struggling to get well, truckload charges sharply above year-ago ranges and shippers dealing with the potential of one other surge in spot costs if demand accelerates, in response to Uber Freight.
Uber Freight launched its Q3 Market Replace & Outlook Report on Thursday, saying truckload circumstances have begun to stabilize after two quarters of fee inflation, however capability constraints proceed to ripple by less-than-truckload, intermodal and cross-border transportation.
The report identifies three main forces shaping the market heading into the fourth quarter: constrained trucking capability, unstable diesel costs and quickly altering U.S. commerce coverage.
“Transportation choices carry extra weight than ever earlier than. Circumstances can change shortly, and the price of reacting too late is usually increased than anticipated,” Uber Freight CEO Rebecca Tinucci stated within the report.
Uber Freight stated shippers that proceed sourcing transportation capability week to week are significantly susceptible if freight demand all of a sudden accelerates through the fourth-quarter peak.
September and October present a comparatively steady window for many markets to restore routing guides and safe capability forward of peak season, in response to the report.
Truckload and Mexico have been rated as having “excessive” publicity heading into late October, whereas intermodal and Canada have been rated at medium severity.
Truckload charges stay sharply above 2025
Nationwide common dry van contract linehaul charges reached $2.39 per mile in July, an 18% enhance from July 2025, in response to information cited by Uber Freight. The 13-cent enhance from June was the biggest June-to-July achieve on file.
Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.39 per mile in July, 47% increased 12 months over 12 months.
Spot pricing has subsequently eased because the seasonal July peak light. Van spot linehaul averaged $2.21 per mile through the week of Aug. 26, however remained 35.6% above the identical interval final 12 months and 23.8% above the nine-year seasonal common.
Carriers are additionally in search of double-digit contract will increase this 12 months and subsequent, in response to Uber Freight.
The corporate’s main tender acceptance fee improved from 76% in July to 78% in August as repriced routing guides started to carry and spot circumstances softened. That is still considerably beneath the 90% to 94% vary seen through the earlier three years.
Uber Freight stated capability just isn’t rebuilding as shortly as sometimes anticipated throughout a tightening freight cycle. The report estimates greater than 48,000 noncompliant drivers have exited the trade over the previous 12 months, whereas Class 8 truck backlogs characterize roughly 9 months of manufacturing.
As of Sept. 10, the SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index for the U.S. (STRI.USA) was at 13.45%, a lot increased than the identical interval within the earlier three years.
Mexico capability stays tight regardless of easing at Laredo
Cross-border transportation stays one of many extra constrained parts of the freight market.
Uber Freight stated about 20,000 Mexican truck drivers misplaced U.S. visas between April 2025 and April 2026, whereas the variety of energetic Mexican-domiciled southern border carriers was 6.3% decrease in late June in contrast with late December.
Capability round Laredo has eased from extraordinarily tight second-quarter circumstances however stays considerably tighter than a 12 months in the past.
The Laredo dry van load-to-truck ratio stood between 8.0 and eight.5 in mid-August, down from roughly 10-to-1 through the second quarter however nonetheless 61.9% increased 12 months over 12 months.
Mexico-to-U.S. long-haul spot charges remained 8% to fifteen% above mid-February ranges, with will increase of as a lot as 30% on essential corridors. Produce exports by Laredo elevated 8% 12 months over 12 months through the second quarter, in response to the report.
Uber Freight stated these constraints are prompting extra firms to rethink how they transfer freight throughout the border.
Shippers that beforehand trusted direct-trailer capability utilizing B-1 drivers are more and more incorporating transloading into their networks in Laredo — and are starting to discover the technique in El Paso.
“Transloading is shifting from workaround to community design,” the report stated.
Uber Freight cited one main beverage producer that had relied solely on direct B-1 capability however started lacking supply appointments in Nuevo Laredo. The corporate rerouted essential freight by a Laredo cross-dock and is now growing a hybrid community combining transloading for time-sensitive shipments with direct B-1 transportation for extra versatile freight.
Diesel provides one other layer of strain
Gasoline prices may additional complicate freight pricing heading into bid season.
The nationwide common diesel value reached $5.652 per gallon through the week of Aug. 24, the best degree of 2026 and 52.4% above the identical week final 12 months. Diesel had fallen as little as $4.58 per gallon in early July earlier than rebounding.
Uber Freight warned that smaller truckload carriers working on skinny margins may park tools reasonably than haul freight at a loss if gasoline volatility persists.
On the similar time, shippers face an more and more sophisticated commerce surroundings following modifications to U.S. tariff coverage and the shift of the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement into annual critiques.
The mixture leaves transportation networks with little margin for one more sudden disruption.
Uber Freight recommends that shippers use the comparatively steady September-October interval to safe baseline capability, restore underperforming routing guides and set up backup carriers earlier than the standard late-October freight peak.
Why it issues: The extended freight downturn seems to be giving option to a extra carrier-favorable pricing surroundings throughout a number of transportation modes.
The put up Uber Freight warns tight capability may gasoline This fall freight fee surge appeared first on BigRig.