The latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition, produced in partnership with DAT Freight & Analytics, shows a growing disconnect between freight volumes and freight pricing. While shipment activity remains soft, tightening truck capacity and a narrowing gap between contract and spot rates are putting upward pressure on transportation costs.
The biggest movement is showing up in the dry van market.
Dry van spot rates reached $2.14 per mile in May 2026, representing a 31.29% increase from the same period last year and a 9.74% jump from April. Contract rates climbed to $2.18 per mile, up 9% year-over-year.
At the same time, freight volumes declined. Spot market shipments dropped to approximately 1.11 million in May after reaching 1.31 million in April.
“Freight volumes may appear stable, but costs are telling a different story,” said Alex Terry, director of transportation at Veritiv. “As contract rates catch up to spot pricing, shippers face growing exposure to higher transportation spend.”
Contract and Spot Rates Are Getting Closer
One of the biggest changes highlighted in the report is the shrinking difference between contract and spot market pricing.
The gap between the two reportedly fell from roughly 39 cents per mile to around 11 cents per mile.
That matters because shippers traditionally rely on contract freight to provide some protection from sudden increases in the spot market. As that gap disappears, there is less room to absorb disruptions when contracted carriers reject loads or additional capacity has to be purchased on the open market.
When spot prices are nearly equal to contract rates, switching to backup carriers can become significantly more expensive than it was during a softer freight market.
The report also suggests that higher rates are being driven more by available truck capacity than by fuel.
Linehaul pricing has increased faster than fuel-related costs, while freight rates have continued climbing even as shipment volumes decline.
According to the index, that combination points to a freight market increasingly being driven by tightening supply rather than a major rebound in demand.
LTL Carriers Continue Holding Rates
The less-than-truckload market is showing a slightly different trend.
LTL carriers have largely maintained pricing despite weakness in shipment volumes.
Old Dominion Freight Line reported that LTL shipments per day declined 7.9% year-over-year during the first quarter. However, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel increased 4.4%.
XPO also reported stronger pricing, with North American LTL yield excluding fuel increasing 4% while shipments per day rose 3%.
The numbers suggest major LTL carriers are continuing to protect pricing instead of aggressively lowering rates to attract additional freight.
LTL pricing also tends to react differently than the truckload spot market because rates are influenced by longer contract cycles, freight classifications and revenue-per-hundredweight pricing structures.
Those factors can help shield LTL pricing from some of the short-term volatility seen in the truckload market.
Higher Freight Costs Could Be Coming
For shippers, the biggest concern is that transportation expenses could continue rising even if freight volumes remain relatively flat.
Spot rates typically react to changing market conditions faster than contract rates. With spot pricing already moving higher, contract pricing appears to be following behind.
That means the full impact of higher truckload rates may not have reached shipper transportation budgets yet.
The U.S. Bank report recommends that shippers closely monitor the relationship between contract and spot rates, review whether their routing guides reflect current carrier behavior and prepare transportation budgets for the possibility of additional contract rate increases.
The shrinking difference between spot and contract pricing also means unexpected capacity problems could become more expensive.
“As contract rates continue to catch up to spot, cost exposure may increase even without a corresponding increase in shipment activity,” the report states.
For the trucking industry, the numbers point to a market that may be changing before freight demand fully recovers. Trucking capacity appears to be tightening, spot pricing is rising and contract rates are beginning to follow — all while overall freight volumes remain under pressure.