Supply Chain Volatility Is Here to Stay as Logistics Costs Hit $2.4 Trillion

Supply chain volatility is no longer being treated as a temporary problem. It has become part of the new normal for businesses operating across transportation and logistics, according to the 2026 State of Logistics Report released Tuesday.

U.S. business logistics costs totaled $2.4 trillion last year, equal to roughly 7.8% of the nation’s gross domestic product. That was down from $2.6 trillion, or 8.7% of GDP, in 2025.

The report, written by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, points to five major forces continuing to reshape the global supply chain: uneven economic growth, tighter financial conditions, shifting global trade patterns, labor and productivity challenges, and volatile energy prices.

Growth remains uneven around the world. The United States, India and Southeast Asia continue to outperform other regions, while Europe remains sluggish and Gulf economies face additional pressure from conflict and disruptions to energy markets.

At the same time, ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and constantly changing tariff policies continue to create uncertainty for global trade.

For trucking companies, carriers and shippers, the message is becoming increasingly clear: waiting for the market to simply return to normal may no longer be a realistic strategy.

Companies are instead being pushed to build operations that can survive constant changes in freight demand, trade policy, fuel prices and capacity.

That means maintaining pricing discipline, improving asset utilization and investing more aggressively in technology, automation and digital tools that can produce measurable returns.

Five major forces are reshaping logistics

The report identifies five structural issues that are expected to continue influencing the logistics industry for the foreseeable future.

Those include uneven global economic growth, tighter financial conditions caused by inflation and rising government debt, shifting trade flows, labor and productivity constraints, and continued volatility in energy markets.

The United States is projected to grow between 2.2% and 2.4% in 2026, while India and Southeast Asia continue to lead global expansion.

Europe is expected to grow at only around 1%.

Gulf Cooperation Council economies, meanwhile, have contracted roughly 1.2% as conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy flows and regional commerce.

One of the biggest concerns is the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 20 million barrels of oil move through the waterway every day, along with roughly 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade. Any major disruption in the area has the potential to quickly impact fuel prices, shipping costs and global supply chains.

Tariffs have created another layer of uncertainty.

According to the report, tariff policies changed an average of once every 1.5 weeks during 2025. That level of uncertainty has caused some companies to delay major supply chain and network decisions because they do not know what the trade environment will look like several months later.

AI moves from experimentation to real-world use

Artificial intelligence is also beginning to move beyond testing and pilot programs.

Companies are now finding targeted areas where AI can provide measurable financial and operational benefits.

The report breaks AI’s role in logistics into four major functions: interpreting information, predicting what could happen next, recommending a response and eventually executing that response.

Interpretation and prediction are currently the most developed areas, largely because logistics companies have already spent years collecting information through telematics, tracking systems and visibility platforms.

AI can now help companies analyze those signals, identify possible disruptions and recommend changes before problems spread through the network.

Physical automation is also becoming more visible.

Warehouse robotics, automated equipment and autonomous transportation technology are beginning to reach meaningful commercial milestones.

The problem is that adoption remains extremely uneven.

Some logistics companies are integrating AI directly into their daily operations, while others are still experimenting with isolated tools that have little connection to the rest of their business.

That gap could become increasingly important as companies look for ways to control costs without adding additional employees.

Freight markets continue moving in different directions

Different areas of the freight industry are also seeing dramatically different market conditions.

Air cargo posted record volumes in 2025, with global demand increasing 3.4%.

But the numbers varied significantly depending on the trade lane.

Asia-to-Europe air freight increased 10.3% as companies rerouted shipments around disruptions. Asia-to-North America traffic, however, declined 0.8%.

Demand accelerated again in early 2026, although higher fuel prices, sustainable aviation fuel requirements and geopolitical routing issues are creating additional uncertainty.

The market is increasingly favoring high-value cargo where speed and reliability are more important than obtaining the lowest possible transportation cost.

Parcel and last-mile delivery face a major reset

The U.S. parcel and last-mile delivery market is also undergoing a major structural change.

Rather than simply returning to pre-pandemic conditions, the industry is adjusting to changes in international e-commerce and trade rules.

The removal of de minimis treatment for China-origin parcels reportedly reduced daily volumes by approximately 85%, pushing more shipments toward domestic fulfillment networks.

Carrier pricing has also moved higher, with general rate increases around 5.9% along with additional fuel and accessorial charges.

Demand remains strong overall.

U.S. e-commerce sales now exceed $1.23 trillion, but the delivery market is increasingly splitting into two sides.

On one end are extremely low-cost regional delivery services. On the other are premium services built around faster delivery and reliability.

As online marketplaces take more control over routing decisions, the competitive advantage is also shifting away from simply owning the largest transportation network.

Technology, integration and the ability to intelligently route freight are becoming increasingly important.

3PL companies take on a bigger role

The third-party logistics sector is also reaching a major turning point.

Shippers increasingly want logistics providers to handle more than individual transactions.

Instead, companies are looking for providers capable of managing transportation, visibility, customs, compliance, cross-border operations and other parts of the supply chain under one system.

Large providers are responding by increasing their scale, expanding their networks and investing in real-time visibility and AI.

The goal is to handle more freight and more complicated supply chains without increasing staffing costs at the same rate.

As a result, traditional 3PL providers are increasingly moving toward integrated logistics models that resemble fourth-party logistics, or 4PL, operations.

Freight forwarding enters a new era

Freight forwarders entered 2026 facing their own structural reset.

Controlling margins has become a major priority as excess ocean capacity continues to pressure pricing despite relatively stable freight volumes.

Geopolitical disruptions have also become something companies are expected to plan around rather than treat as occasional emergencies.

As traditional brokerage margins become more difficult to protect, freight forwarders are increasingly looking toward higher-value services.

Those services include customs management, regulatory compliance, warehousing, supply chain financing and technology-driven logistics solutions.

Ocean shipping remains oversupplied

Ocean freight continues to face too much available capacity even as geopolitical disruptions temporarily remove ships and routes from the market.

Fleet growth exceeded demand growth during 2025, and another wave of newly built vessels entering service in 2026 is expected to increase the imbalance.

At the same time, several of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints remain under pressure.

Those include the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal and Black Sea.

Disruptions in those regions have helped support freight rates in the short term while reducing the number of alternative routes available to carriers.

For shippers, excess capacity could create opportunities to negotiate better transportation contracts.

However, the report warns that flexibility may be more valuable than attempting to predict exactly when freight rates will rise or fall.

What logistics companies should prepare for next

The biggest takeaway from the report is that companies may need to stop designing supply chains primarily around maximum efficiency.

Resilience is becoming just as important.

Mark Baxa, president and CEO of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, said supply chains are changing so quickly that logistics networks could look dramatically different again within another year.

The report highlights five major priorities for companies moving forward:

Design supply chains around resilience instead of efficiency alone.

Focus on getting more productivity from existing assets before expanding physical footprints.

Treat trade compliance and geopolitical intelligence as competitive advantages.

Speed up investments in digital technology and automation that can demonstrate a clear return.

And evaluate capital spending more carefully, placing greater emphasis on investments with shorter and more measurable payback periods.

Korhan Acar, a Kearney partner and lead author of the report, said the forces disrupting global supply chains can no longer be viewed as temporary events.

Energy costs, inflation, trade uncertainty and geopolitical instability are putting pressure on margins and forcing companies to reconsider how their logistics operations are structured.

At the same time, automation and artificial intelligence are reaching a point where they can begin producing meaningful results.

For trucking and logistics companies, the companies best positioned for the next several years may not necessarily be the ones with the biggest networks.

They could be the ones capable of reacting faster, using their assets more efficiently and adapting their operations as conditions change.