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Xeneta: US-bound container charges peak, however sharp collapse unlikely

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Xeneta: US-bound container charges peak, however sharp collapse unlikely


Spot container freight charges from Asia to the USA have doubtless reached their post-Hormuz disaster peak, however shippers ought to count on elevated prices by the rest of 2026, based on Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand.

Market-average spot charges edged increased Oct. 1, reaching $8,346 per forty-foot equal unit to the U.S. West Coast and $11,523 per FEU to the East Coast. These will increase of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively, from Sept. 24 left charges greater than 4 occasions their Feb. 28 pre-crisis ranges.

“Spot charges from Far East to the U.S. ticked up once more on October 1, however we are able to say with a stage of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz disaster peak in 2026,” Sand mentioned.

Easing port congestion in Asia as hurricane season winds down helps flip the market, he mentioned. China’s Golden Week and nationwide holidays are additionally lowering exports throughout the first week of October.

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“Demand is just not sturdy and charges have now peaked, however they won’t collapse, so shippers ought to count on to pay elevated freight prices for the rest of the 12 months,” Sand mentioned.

Xeneta expects a steeper decline on the Asia–U.S. East Coast commerce than on the West Coast route, reflecting the East Coast’s increased place to begin. East Coast charges stood $3,177 per FEU above West Coast charges Oct. 1, in contrast with a $772 premium earlier than the Hormuz disaster.

Sand expects that hole to slender as charges retreat by the remainder of the 12 months. Trying forward three months, he forecast East Coast spot charges in a variety of $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU and West Coast charges round $4,500 to $5,500.

“That may be a large correction, however not a collapse,” he mentioned.

The anticipated flip in U.S.-bound charges follows an earlier reversal on routes from the Far East to Europe. Sand mentioned charges to North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked a lot earlier and have been falling for the reason that starting of July.

Asia–North Europe spot charges declined 2.1% within the newest week to $3,726 per FEU, whereas Mediterranean charges fell 4.6% to $4,105. Regardless of these declines, charges remained 67.9% and 23.3% above their respective pre-crisis ranges.

On the North Europe–U.S. East Coast commerce, charges fell 2.2% week over week to $2,893 per FEU, nonetheless 95.9% above the Feb. 28 baseline.

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Sand cautioned that the outlook stays weak.

“We will additionally not low cost additional main disruptions or geopolitic battle that might change the state of affairs dramatically as soon as once more,” he mentioned.

Learn extra articles by Editor right here.

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