Freight’s cycle-ending forces are nonetheless stacking up, however Reliance Companions’ Chief Income Officer Thom Albrecht sat down with us to debate why this one would possibly final.
Practically 360 trucking, freight brokerage, and insurance coverage professionals packed the Grand Hyatt Nashville for the fifth Annual Trucking Issues Seminar Collection, Reliance Companions’ largest turnout but for an occasion that began with 160 attendees in its first yr. Over two days, the agenda moved from federal security coverage to cargo theft, credit score danger, and the way forward for freight brokerage. The occasion opened, because it has in years previous, with Albrecht’s signature freight, capability, and financial replace.
Albrecht cut up his presentation into two elements. The primary was a conventional learn on the well being of the buyer and companies, together with the broader financial system. The second, framed as “a story of two cities,” dug into the structural overhaul reshaping trucking capability and why he believes the business could also be getting into a freight cycle in contrast to any prior to now twenty years.
The financial information paints a combined image. Inflation-adjusted wages had strung collectively 35 straight months of positive aspects after a brutal 25-month stretch of declines till April and Could of this yr turned unfavorable once more. Customers are nonetheless climbing out of a purchasing-power gap.
Class-level inflation is a fair messier story than the roughly 3.5% headline CPI determine suggests. As of the fifth Annual Trucking Matter Seminar, Gasoline was up 26.7% yr over yr even because it fell almost 10% in June alone; lettuce and tomatoes had been up 23.8%; espresso climbed 18.5%. In the meantime, bacon, used autos, and eggs had been all down on a year-over-year foundation. Financial savings charges, sitting close to 3% in opposition to a historic common north of 8%, left little cushion. Bank card delinquencies at 90 days had climbed again to 7.1%, nonetheless shy of the Nice Monetary Disaster peak however effectively above the lows of early 2022.
Enterprise demand, Albrecht famous, was not strong, however higher than in 2025. Buyer inventories remained close to survey-history lows. That’s excellent news for freight creation as this yr’s replenishment freight has been steadier than a yr in the past. AI-related capital spending, in the meantime, accounted for almost 70% of first half 2026 GDP development. Strip out AI, tech, and authorities spending, and the remainder of the financial system really contracted barely in Q1 and barely grew in Q2.
Housing has been “caught” for almost 4 years. Current house gross sales per 1,000 households had fallen to roughly 26, effectively under the 44-59 vary of the 2000s and 2010s, with affordability consuming an estimated 43% of family disposable earnings in opposition to a extra reasonably priced stage round 30%.
“A Story of Two Cities,” a reference to the Dickens line “It was the most effective of instances, it was the worst of instances,” set the tone for the convention. Fraudulent and non-compliant carriers, Albrecht argued, had been thriving for years whereas compliant fleets absorbed the price of doing issues the appropriate method.
His information backed it up: compliant carriers function at roughly $2.38 a mile as soon as insurance coverage, payroll, drug testing, authorized CDLs, and maintained tools are factored in, versus roughly $1.65 a mile for carriers who minimize these corners. Which means a non-compliant 50-truck motor provider has as much as a $6.5 million price benefit in comparison with a compliant 50-truck fleet.
Newly registered DOT numbers for for-hire, interstate, normal freight carriers had exploded from a 2010-2019 yearly common of 9,760 to a 2020-2025 common of 36,658, with almost 60,000 new registrations in 2025 alone. Albrecht’s presentation flagged the telltale indicators of the fraud driving these numbers. Service telephone numbers like 123-456-7890 and 867-5309, single addresses housing tons of of “trucking firms,” and CDL mills with commercials in varied languages are all recognizable patterns.
Albrecht highlighted that there are nonetheless CDL colleges promoting acquiring a CDL with out English proficiency. Even at present, there are a number of actual examples seen on-line.
Albrecht’s Ideas on the Potential of a Trucking “Tremendous Cycle”
Through the motor provider panel dialogue, Albrecht made the case that this cycle might break from tendencies in current historical past. Freight cycles are sometimes outlined as sustained stretches of rising charges adopted by contraction. Albrecht defines a brilliant cycle as one which runs longer than two years and one wherein pricing is way stronger than CPI, if not double-digit. The business hasn’t cleared that threshold because the cycle that lasted from mid-2003 to the autumn of 2006.
The 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 cycles each petered out after roughly 18 months, and every was tied to a single regulatory catalyst (an Hours of Service change within the former, the ELD mandate within the latter). And even the restoration after the housing collapse lasted lower than 20 months, albeit with none trucking regulatory adjustments.
This cycle has the potential to be totally different, Albrecht argued, as a result of it isn’t driving on one rule change. He additionally acknowledged the hazard in stating that “This time is totally different” given the historical past of failed proclamations all through historical past. “Up to now there have been a handful of regulatory adjustments throughout this cycle , and extra adjustments are anticipated, each as new laws and in addition to tighten enforcement of present laws the place ‘loopholes’ have been exploited. I search for greater than a handful of NPRMs within the subsequent couple of quarters,” Albrecht stated. NPRMs are Notices of Proposed Rulemakings from the FMCSA.
Adjustments which have already impacted the market embrace English Language Proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and cabotage guidelines already in impact, with a proficiency examination for new-entrant motor carriers advancing by way of the rulemaking pipeline. FMCSA signaled on July 27 that it’s transferring ahead on new entrant proficiency examination rulemaking. The FMCSA additionally introduced the elimination of self-certification of CDL entities and ELDs. Whereas almost 8,000 CDL entities have been faraway from the system, hundreds extra may be eliminated. In 2019, in keeping with Albrecht, there have been roughly 6,000 entities within the TPR (coaching supplier registry) and on November 30, 2025 there have been 39,554 and at present that quantity remains to be above 30,000.
By way of ELDs, “merely saying that third celebration certification might be required is inadequate”, Albrecht stated, “and I count on extra particulars later this yr or early in 2027 round what the certification course of will appear like. With roughly 1,000 ELDs in the USA, in comparison with simply 41 in Canada, I imagine that when third celebration certification is in place, that there might ultimately be barely 30 authorised ELDs within the U.S.”
“Additionally, once I take into consideration the brand new entrant spigot, a written examination to indicate proficiency round hours of service, hazmat driving, what to do within the occasion of a crash, chosen upkeep points, and different matters, can be an enchancment over merely making use of for and receiving a DOT quantity,” Albrecht stated.
“Other than elevating the value to acquire a DOT quantity and requiring extra thorough verification of the identification of the brand new provider, together with authenticating the principal place of job, possession, a number of DOT and MC numbers, and so forth.,” Albrecht stated, “written exams would display some start-up data that might clearly must be accompanied by an onsite audit across the 1-year anniversary of a brand new motor provider.”
“Nonetheless, for a real super-cycle to happen, extra must be completed. If the FMCSA had been to cease pursuing adjustments at present, the cycle can be over by late 2027 or early 2028, which means it could be like all of the cycles because the final tremendous cycle over 20 years in the past,” Albrecht stated. “Extra must be completed. Proper now, we’re in a ship with quite a few holes. We’ve to plug these holes to enhance security and compliance and to make sure a cycle that lasts greater than two years.”
What shippers and carriers are watching
The convention’s motor provider and shipper panels strengthened the numbers with on-the-ground sentiment. Fleet leaders from Christenson Transportation, Apex Transit Options, Crossett Inc., CB Freight, and Excel Trucking described a freight market that’s at present wholesome however traditionally susceptible to shedding steam after 18 to twenty months. The consensus is that this time, structural capability losses could also be everlasting.
Shippers on the panel, together with representatives from Basic Mills, Shaw Industries, Simmons Meals, Armada Provide Chain Options, and KBX Logistics, stated service ranges have deteriorated and several other are actively rebuilding relationships with small and mid-sized carriers after leaning too arduous into mega-carrier capability. Many count on the hole between spot and contract charges to shut by early 2027 and are bracing for double-digit price will increase, even when nobody on stage would decide to a quantity.
The occasion’s latest addition was a reside Q&A with FMCSA Deputy Administrator Jesse Elison, and it gave attendees direct entry to the company shaping that regulatory pipeline, fielding questions on enforcement priorities and the street forward for industrial motorized vehicle security coverage. A brand new freight brokerage panel on the fallout from the Montgomery Supreme Courtroom ruling, that includes leaders from Backhaul Direct, FreightVana, Steam Logistics, and Axle Logistics, tackled the murkier authorized terrain brokers at the moment are navigating. Litigation panelists from The Sloan Agency and Scopelitis, Garvin, Mild, Hanson & Feary famous that with the finer factors of “secure provider” case legislation nonetheless undecided, plaintiff attorneys have little incentive to go away freight brokers out of discovery.
Reliance Companions has now introduced shipper representatives to Trucking Issues for 3 consecutive years, which units the occasion aside from different business gatherings which can be constructed primarily round carriers and brokers.
The sixth Annual Trucking Issues Seminar Collection is ready for July 14-15, 2027, again on the Grand Hyatt Nashville.
Be taught extra at reliancepartners.com.
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