New York–The month-to-month BigRig State of Freight webinar has migrated to BigRig At the moment, however a gathering of shippers in New York Tuesday introduced collectively by its sister firm SONAR received an opportunity to listen to its two key analysts–Craig Fuller and Zach Strickland–opine on a market they described as “fragile.”
In contrast to earlier State of Freight webinars within the first a part of 2026, SONAR and BigRig CEO Fuller and director of market intelligence Strickland this time had been measuring a market that was not transferring greater in leaps and bounds. On the contrary, the Sonar Tender Rejection Index (STRI) has moved down from its current peaks earlier than taking a pointy upward transfer within the days main as much as the occasion on the TWA Resort at JFK Airport.
The shipper gathering was sponsored by Cass Info Methods together with SONAR.
That form of current motion within the STRI is why the time period fragile was raised.
Strickland famous that tender rejections–contracted freight that’s not picked up by a service within the contract relationship, which is permissible below its phrases–are an excellent barometer of market energy.
“Charges have inflationary stress on them,” Strickland mentioned. “Tender rejections don’t. So it’s a bit of bit extra of an apples to apples comparability.”
Though tender rejection charges have climbed beginning in November 2025, Strickland mentioned the sharp worth spike is nowhere close to on the extent of what occurred throughout COVID: the “bathroom paper” spike, a crash, and a gradual gradual rise into the strongest freight market in historical past, led by stimulus cash and client want to start spending cash.
Fuller requested Strickland whether or not the current decline to an STRI of lower than 14%, after being above 17% in June, was “the pause earlier than the storm.”
Strickland answered by recapping the historical past of the market over the past 8-10 months. The primary rise within the rejection price, he mentioned, was “carriers lastly saying, look, this market is tighter than we will handle. We’re going to begin having to reject extra freight to make it via.”
Ultimately, the market adopted to that new actuality, he mentioned. However by mid-Might, Street Examine week occurred, the conventional disruption from Memorial Day, and the shock of Montgomery vs. Caribe Transport II, elevating an entire slew of recent problems with dealer legal responsibility, service choice and their influence on capability.
“This market is so fragile,” Strickland mentioned, “although we’re having these durations of stability.”
The decline in current months partly has possible been pushed by a swap to transferring extra freight over intermodal rail providers, Strickland mentioned.
A brand new baseline
The top outcome, he added, is “a brand new baseline.” However even that may not stick, Strickland mentioned, citing the sharp transfer up within the STRI, which has gone up about 75 foundation factors in simply the previous week.
Strickland referred to that as indicators of a “bizarro world.” “That tells me that this market is just not in a steady place,” he added.
Fuller mentioned he had been talking with Shelley Simpson, the CEO of J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT), who additionally seen the trucking market as fragile. However Fuller mentioned she doesn’t view that as essentially a destructive.
“She was really the alternative, which is that capability is so tight that any disruption might trigger a major improve in rejections, a major tightness in capability, vans not displaying up,” Fuller mentioned. “So I believe the phrase fragility is vital to outline as a result of once I hear fragile, I often assume unhealthy.”
Fuller mentioned his Wall Road contacts are expressing concern a few “disorderly” provide chain paying homage to COVID days. However he mentioned that’s not going to occur.
Knowledge on container ships present a tighter market, he mentioned, however the present market “could be very orderly. I don’t assume anyone needs to be panicked about that is going to create a provide chain disaster.”
Strickland added that the COVID chaos was pushed partly by an enormous surge in demand. That isn’t current within the present market, he mentioned, citing the SONAR Tender Quantity Index.
Fuller mentioned quite a lot of the reason why demand might be down. He cited immigration cutbacks and deportations, “so there’s simply not sufficient folks to devour as a lot meals or different merchandise generally.”
He additionally cited the influence of GLP medicine and their position in decreasing meals consumption. “Individuals devour lots much less beer, lots much less soda,” he mentioned. “So there’s only a bunch of attention-grabbing form of issues occurring at this time.”
What FMCSA desires
Any dialogue in regards to the state of the market at this time instantly strikes over to regulation. In addition to the influence of Montgomery vs. Caribe, there’s additionally the immigration and enforcement crackdown out of the Federal Motor Service Security Administration (FMCSA) and its administrator, Derek Barrs.
Fuller mentioned he’s in frequent contact with Barrs, who has requested Fuller: “How do I make sure that charges at all times go up?”
The administrator’s view on that subject, Fuller mentioned, is that “carriers that earn cash spend extra on upkeep, extra on coaching, and rent correct and controlled drivers.”
Provided that angle, Fuller mentioned “FMCSA and the regulators are going to proceed to place stress in the marketplace, which goes to proceed to power capability out.”
Extra articles by John Kingston
Rejigged NLRB prone to goal Cemex rule, utilized by Teamsters to arrange
Pink Cheetah, TQL combat it out as transparency rule awaited
At tech/AI confab, C.H. Robinson tackles insurance coverage and legal responsibility
The submit At shippers’ confab, defining a ‘fragile’ trucking market appeared first on BigRig.