Executives and trade experts at Flexport discussed the changing tariff landscape Tuesday during the company’s webinar, “Tariff Trends 2026: Expert Insights on the Evolving U.S. Tariff Landscape.”
According to Flexport, importers are watching several major developments, including proposed Section 301 tariffs connected to forced labor concerns, changes to Section 232 metal tariffs, uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and continued court challenges involving tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.
Marcus Eeman, director of customs at Flexport, said businesses should not expect major changes when USMCA reaches its scheduled July 1 review milestone.
“The July 1 deal is looking unlikely, but benefits continue,” Eeman said.
Even if the three countries fail to reach a new agreement this summer, existing USMCA trade preferences would remain in place.
The U.S. is reportedly seeking stronger American labor-content requirements, particularly within the automotive industry. Canada and Mexico, meanwhile, continue pushing for relief from Section 232 tariffs covering steel, aluminum and other metals.
Both countries have argued that the tariffs conflict with the purpose of a free trade agreement.
New forced labor tariffs could replace Section 122 duties
One of the biggest developments discussed during the webinar is a proposed Section 301 tariff program targeting countries the U.S. believes are not doing enough to enforce forced labor protections.
Recommendations currently being reviewed by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative would place a 10% tariff on imports from 13 countries and the European Union.
Another 46 countries could face tariffs of 12.5%.
Countries that already have trade agreements with the United States would generally fall under the lower tariff rate.
Flexport said a number of products could be excluded from the proposed tariffs, including certain natural resources that are unavailable domestically, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, civil aircraft products and goods already covered by Section 232 tariffs.
Products qualifying under USMCA and DR-CAFTA would also be exempt.
The USTR is also considering a tariff-rate quota for textile imports.
Under that system, a certain amount of imported apparel could enter the country at a lower tariff rate before higher duties are applied once the quota is reached.
Public comments on the proposal remain open through July 6, with a hearing scheduled for July 7.
Flexport expects the new Section 301 tariffs could take effect before the current Section 122 duties expire July 24.
New Section 301 tariffs could face court challenge
If the proposed tariffs move forward, another major legal fight could follow.
Supporters of the plan argue that Section 301 gives the federal government authority to impose tariffs after investigating foreign trade practices that negatively affect U.S. commerce.
Opponents argue that using the law to place tariffs on products representing roughly 99% of U.S. import value goes far beyond what Congress originally intended.
That could eventually lead to a challenge under the Supreme Court’s “major questions” doctrine.
Eeman also pointed out that the proposed forced labor tariffs could face more scrutiny than the Section 301 tariffs placed on Chinese imports beginning in 2018.
Those earlier tariffs were supported by extensive investigations into issues including intellectual property theft and industrial subsidies.
The new proposal could face questions over whether broad tariffs are an appropriate response to forced labor enforcement concerns.
Section 232 tariff relief expands
Flexport also discussed recent changes to Section 232 tariffs covering steel and aluminum.
The administration recently approved lower duty rates for several industries, including agricultural equipment, residential HVAC systems and certain mobile industrial equipment such as forklifts, cranes and bulldozers.
The amount of U.S.-made metal required for a product to qualify for reduced tariffs was also lowered from 95% to 85%.
The change could allow more manufacturers to qualify for reduced duty rates.
Several U.S. trade partners, including countries in the European Union as well as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, will also qualify for capped 15% tariff rates on certain mobile industrial products.
Products that qualify under USMCA could receive additional tariff relief based on revised calculations involving the amount of non-U.S. content in the product.
Importers continue pursuing IEEPA tariff refunds
Jenn Park, director of trade advisory at Flexport, also provided an update on the continuing legal fight surrounding IEEPA tariffs and the Customs Automated Processing Engine, known as CAPE.
The U.S. government has appealed a Court of International Trade ruling requiring refunds of certain IEEPA tariffs.
Government attorneys argue that nationwide refund relief should not apply to import entries that have already been finally liquidated.
The appeal has created additional uncertainty for businesses attempting to recover tariffs paid on older imports.
Despite the court battle, the CAPE refund process is continuing.
According to Flexport, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has accepted nearly $95 billion in refund claims for processing.
CBP has already transmitted approximately $23.68 billion to the Treasury Department for refunds.
More than 10.6 million import entries have also been liquidated or reliquidated as part of the refund process.
CBP plans to begin Phase 2 of CAPE on June 29, expanding the refund system to include reconciliation entries.
Phase 3, which is expected to cover finally liquidated entries, is scheduled to begin later this summer.
For importers, the larger picture remains uncertain.
Even as companies continue fighting to recover billions of dollars in previously paid tariffs, another wave of duties could be on the way, leaving businesses to navigate an increasingly complicated U.S. trade environment.