The truck transportation jobs determine for September did one thing it hadn’t executed in additional than three years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics month-to-month report launched Friday confirmed 1,473,100 truck transportation jobs in September, a rise of two,600 jobs from August.
However what was extra notable is that the year-on-year comparability reported that the September whole was 800 jobs greater than a yr earlier.
That doesn’t sound like a lot. However it’s the primary time since April 2023 that the year-on-year comparability for the truck transportation jobs report was constructive.
At its widest, the year-on-year comparability hole was both aspect of 60,000 jobs in June and July of 2024.
The hole steadily narrowed from there. One month in the past, it stood at 9,700 jobs. A giant decline a yr in the past in whole truck transportation jobs between August and September, mixed with this yr’s improve over the course of these two months, allowed the year-on-year comparability to show constructive within the newest report.
The September report launched Friday was the third consecutive month that truck transportation jobs rose. They’re now up 4 out of the final 5 months.
Sub-categories are additionally greater
The sub-category of truckload drivers continued its regular improve. That information is launched by the BLS with a one-month lag.
The company reported that truckload driver jobs rose to 503,200 jobs, up from 501,400 jobs in August. That was nonetheless lower than the determine from a yr in the past of 503,900 jobs.
The height was 553,600 jobs in each August and October 2022.
LTL jobs additionally continued to extend. They have been 248,900 jobs in August, up 1,200 jobs from a month earlier and up from 246,000 jobs on the shut of 2025.
Is capability actually exiting?
Jason Miller, a professor of provide chain administration at Michigan State, mentioned the rise in truckload and LTL jobs suggests a view that capability is exiting the market may not be correct.
The info, he mentioned in an e mail to BigRig, “factors to present institutions including some capability.”
“Nevertheless, I’m not satisfied these information received’t be considerably revised as a result of seasonally adjusted administrative information confirmed payrolls declining in March, not reaching a backside just like the survey assumes,” Miller mentioned. “If the (employment information) are certainly appropriate, this runs counter to the arguments superior by the general public truckload carriers that capability continues to exit on internet. These information level to the alternative: capability is slowly recovering.”
The rise in LTL employment, although gradual, “is sensible with PMI information suggesting progress in manufacturing exercise,” Miller mentioned.
In an identical vein, Mazen Danaf, the principal economist at Uber Freight, mentioned variations between this information and the quartelry Census of Employment and Wages suggests the annual revision within the BLS figures that’s printed in early February may reduce the LTL and truckload figures.
“These figures are possible overstated and face important revisions early subsequent yr,” Danaf mentioned. “Whereas Q1 Present Employment Statistics (CES) information indicated for-hire trucking employment fell 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) and long-distance truckload dropped 2.8%, the extra dependable Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) survey reported steeper declines of two.4% and 4.1%, respectively—higher reflecting tighter laws in Q1. If the QCEW numbers are correct, the market could enter peak season undersupplied.”
Weak point in warehouse
Warehouse jobs, which a couple of months in the past regarded like they have been bouncing again from months of weak spot, at the moment are little modified from the place they have been at first of this yr.
After a 4,100 job decline between August and September, and downward revisions for June and July, warehouse jobs of 1,831,800 jobs aren’t that rather more than the January/February totals which straddled 1,831,000 jobs.
Warehouse jobs in September have been 21,600 jobs lower than a yr in the past. They’re down greater than 107,000 jobs from their March 2022 peak.
Aaron Terrazas, an impartial economist who has specialised in freight economics, described the third consecutive decline in warehouse jobs as “a troubling sign at a time of yr when the sector must be busy constructing inventories forward of the vacation season.”
“Both warehouse operators are planning for a muted vacation season, or automation has shifted the sector’s labor wants through the annual peak season,” he mentioned in an e mail to BigRig.
Terrazas, chatting with the broader report that confirmed a modest rise in whole employment of 29,000 jobs, mentioned it was “a reminder that regardless of resilience by a lot of 2026, the labor market stays fragile — not contracting, however susceptible.”
The rise in employment was “constructive, safely within the vary of breakeven estimates that suggest balanced labor demand and provide.”
“A part of the problem for economists and financial policymakers just lately has been that there are not any inexperienced lights signaling ‘all okay’ within the financial system, however there usually are not many purple lights signaling warning both, solely a bunch of yellow lights telling us to proceed with warning,” Terrazas mentioned.
In different highlights from the month-to-month report:
- Common hourly earnings within the truck transportation sector for manufacturing and nonsupervisory workers took a reasonably sharp improve in August. The info is reported with a one-month lag. August earnings for that sector was $32.67/hour, up from $32.36 a month earlier. That determine rises nearly each month so the truth that it’s a document just isn’t distinctive. However the improve of about 9.6% in a single month is the best since October 2025, when it was additionally about 9.6%.
- In different benchmark numbers, the joint information from AscendTMS and Superior Trucking reported that its fleet progress index was up 0.19% in September, the third consecutive month of progress. It additionally reported driver turnover of 8.15%, which was down from 9.37& in August and 15.06% a yr earlier. The AscendTMS/Superior Trucking driver pay index was 154.13. That was down from the June peak of 170.04.
- Rail jobs remained under 150,000 jobs, which has been type of a median determine in current months. However at 148,900 jobs, it’s the second lowest whole since a transfer above 150,000 jobs that happened in late 2022 and held till a couple of months earlier this yr when the determine dropped under 150,000 jobs. The current peak was 158,100 jobs in April 2024.
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