The U.S.-Mexico trucking market is tightening in early 2026, however not in the best way conventional freight indicators recommend, based on Uber Freight.
As an alternative of a demand-driven cycle, capability constraints tied to safety, compliance and driver qualification are reshaping how freight strikes throughout the border — creating what one govt described as “phantom capability.”
“We’ve mainly seen in Q1 … a tightening in provide. It’s nearly like a supply-driven market,” Zeid Houssami, senior vp overseeing Uber Freight’s cross-border enterprise, informed BigRig in an interview.
Houssami stated underlying demand has remained comparatively steady, however usable capability has shrunk because of stricter safety necessities and operational focus alongside key industrial corridors in Mexico.
San Francisco-based Uber Applied sciences (NYSE: UBER) operates three platforms: Uber (ride-hailing), Uber Freight (logistics), and Uber Eats (meals and items supply).
‘Phantom capability’ masking tighter market
Whereas headline metrics resembling spot charges and tender rejections could sign a unfastened market, Houssami stated these indicators are more and more deceptive.
“Demand hasn’t actually shifted. It’s actually been extra provide constraints, because of safety primarily, after which additionally only a consolidation of volumes on particular corridors,” he stated.
That dynamic is making a rising hole between theoretical capability and freight that may really transfer reliably — significantly in cross-border lanes requiring vetted carriers and safe transit.
The outcome: decrease tender acceptance charges and elevated reliance on the spot market, even earlier than a full pricing upcycle takes maintain.
SONAR’s Outbound Tender Quantity Index (OTVI.KRD) reveals tender volumes remaining comparatively steady to barely elevated in early 2026, reflecting resilient cross-border demand at the same time as broader freight markets present blended alerts.
Nonetheless, rising volatility in tender acceptance — tied to compliance constraints and service selectivity — means that underlying capability is tighter than volumes alone point out. The divergence between regular OTVI and softer acceptance charges reinforces the “phantom capability” narrative, the place freight is on the market however tougher to cowl persistently.
Compliance, not drivers, driving shortages
One of many greatest constraints is just not an absence of drivers general, however a scarcity of drivers who meet tightening compliance and safety requirements.
“There’s not likely a driver scarcity — it’s extra so it’s a compliant driver scarcity,” Houssami stated.
This distinction is vital for cross-border freight, the place safety protocols, documentation necessities and service vetting are more and more limiting which capability is definitely usable.
The affect is most pronounced on northbound freight into the U.S., the place demand considerably outweighs southbound flows.
“Northbound demand is 2 to 3 occasions greater than it’s on the southbound aspect,” Houssami stated.
That imbalance is forcing carriers to shortly reposition gear again into Mexico, tightening accessible capability for U.S.-bound shipments.
Shippers shift technique amid volatility
Dealing with these constraints, shippers are altering procurement methods — not essentially as a result of demand is surging, however to organize for future disruptions.
“I believe it’s in all probability extra of the latter,” Houssami stated of early procurement exercise, noting that shippers are appearing defensively moderately than reacting to a requirement rebound.
Uber Freight has seen a surge in mini-bids and short-term procurement occasions as corporations look to diversify service networks and safe dependable capability forward of potential shocks tied to tariffs, gas prices and coverage adjustments.
Houssami stated the business is transferring away from heavy reliance on long-term contracts towards a hybrid strategy that includes extra spot market flexibility.
Hall focus limits flexibility
On the identical time, geographic focus of producing in Mexico — significantly in automotive and industrial hubs — is limiting how a lot shippers can diversify their networks.
“It’s a powerful drawback to resolve … when the producers are concentrated in a selected location,” Houssami stated.
That focus is reinforcing capability bottlenecks alongside key corridors, significantly these tied to high-value, security-sensitive freight.
USMCA uncertainty clouds outlook
Trying forward, Houssami stated the largest wildcard for cross-border freight stays the upcoming evaluation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement.
Uncertainty round whether or not the commerce pact will probably be prolonged or renegotiated is already influencing shipper habits and nearshoring funding selections.
“I believe it’s positively slowed down nearshoring funding … everyone’s in just a little little bit of a holding sample till July,” he stated.
If the settlement is prolonged, it may present much-needed stability for cross-border provide chains. However extended negotiations or uncertainty may inject extra volatility into freight markets.
Planning, diversification key for 2026
Within the close to time period, Houssami stated shippers ought to concentrate on proactive planning and constructing extra resilient service networks.
“I believe before everything, planning, demand forecasting … is paramount,” he stated.
He added that diversifying service relationships — significantly with compliant, security-ready suppliers — will probably be vital as capability turns into extra constrained and fragmented.
With compliance, safety and coverage more and more shaping freight flows, the U.S.-Mexico trucking market is coming into a section the place entry to dependable capability could matter greater than worth alone.
The publish Phantom capability tightens US-Mexico trucking market, Uber Freight says appeared first on BigRig.